UK’s next tree disease outbreak is a question of when, not if, researchers warn
From family walks in the woods to the timber used to build our homes and furniture, trees are central to everyday life across the UK, but our trees could be devastated by future disease outbreaks unless lessons are learned from past epidemics.
That’s the warning from researchers at University of Gloucestershire, who are embarking on a major new four-year project to help the UK prepare for the next inevitable tree disease crisis before it arrives.
History shows just how damaging tree disease epidemics can be. Dutch elm disease wiped out around 90% of the UK’s elm trees in the 1970s. More recently, ash dieback is expected to kill between half and three-quarters of the UK’s ash trees.
While it is impossible to predict exactly which diseases will emerge next, the researchers say the past offers valuable lessons about how outbreaks unfold and how better preparation could limit their impact.
The £3.14 million ADAPTREE project brings together researchers from the UK and Denmark to help safeguard the nation’s trees. Led by the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, the project will examine how tree diseases have been managed in the past and what can be done differently in the future to improve outcomes.
Researchers from the University’s Countryside and Community Research Institute (CCRI) are leading the social science strand of the project. They will work with tree managers, including farmers, foresters and gardeners, to understand the challenges they face when responding to disease outbreaks and to co-develop practical plans to cope with future threats.
As part of the project, the researchers will:
- Gather the views and experiences of 1,200 tree managers through a nationwide survey
- Examine how major outbreaks, including ash dieback and Dutch elm disease, were managed and identify lessons that can be learned
- Interview scientists and other experts to understand the factors that shape decisions on tree disease management
The aim is to ensure that when the next major tree disease emerges, those responsible for managing Britain’s trees are better prepared to act quickly and effectively, helping to protect landscapes, wildlife and the economic benefits that trees provide for future generations.
Dr Julie Urquhart, who leads the University’s contribution to ADAPTREE, said: “The next major tree disease outbreak is a question of when, not if. The good news is that we can learn from past epidemics and be far better prepared to respond when it happens.
“We’re bringing together farmers, foresters, gardeners, land managers and scientists to understand what helps people act quickly and effectively when disease strikes. Their insights will be vital in building a stronger, more coordinated response for the future.”
Dr Alice Goodenough, who co-leads the University’s contribution to ADAPTREE, said: “Trees enrich our lives in countless ways. They provide timber, support wildlife, store carbon and shape the landscapes we love exploring with friends and family.
“Our goal is to develop practical plans that can be put into action quickly to help safeguard our trees. Ultimately, we want to make sure that future generations inherit the same beautiful landscapes and natural benefits that we enjoy today.”
ADAPTREE brings together tree managers, policymakers and researchers from evolutionary biology, social science, design and the humanities. The team will draw lessons from history, looking at how management and policy decisions have influenced the impacts of disease on trees in the past.
The project is one of 18 new research and innovation projects receiving a share of more than £54 million from a UK government and UKRI programme to protect the UK against biosecurity threats.