The Budget Alone Cannot Deliver Growth – The UK Must Confront Deeper Barriers, Says University of Gloucestershire Professor

In the aftermath of yesterday’s Budget, one question cuts through the headlines: can Britain get its economy growing again?

According to University of Gloucestershire’s Professor Malcolm Prowle, the answer is no – not without confronting deeper structural, political and societal barriers.

At a recent public lecture, Professor Prowle warned that: “No Budget, however ambitious, can deliver sustainable growth on its own”.

Speaking to students, business owners and members of the public, Professor Prowle reminded the audience that the UK’s stagnation predates the financial crisis. Before 2008, GDP growth typically hovered around 2% – the level needed to sustain public services and living standards. Since then, productivity has stalled, real wages have flatlined, and the effects are clear: strained services, widening regional inequalities and long-term wage stagnation.

Professor Prowle argued that the biggest obstacles to growth lie beyond any single fiscal event. Alongside global pressures such as geopolitical instability and energy shocks, the UK’s “dysfunctional government”, policy discontinuity, over-centralisation and rapid ministerial turnover have created a damaging “stop–start” pattern that undermines long-term planning and investment.

He also argued that public attitudes also present a challenge. Despite concerns about living standards, Professor Prowle noted that “most adults have made little or no change” to their behaviours, even though consumption habits drive environmental and economic outcomes. This resistance, he said, complicates any government’s attempt at meaningful reform.

Crucially, he stressed that sustainable growth cannot be separated from climate policy. Climate change, he argued, will place “downward pressure on economic growth” through the mounting costs of extreme weather, disrupted supply chains and infrastructure vulnerability. With mitigation and adaptation likely to cost tens of billions each year, Professor Powle contends that the lack of long-term climate investment in successive Budgets is now a core economic risk.

However, despite the challenges, Professor Prowle identified opportunities. The UK’s service-based economy, growing green innovation sector and often-overlooked SMEs all have strong potential – but only if supported by long-term strategic investment, innovation and leadership rather than short-term fixes.

As the Budget sets the tone for the year ahead, Prowle’s message is clear: growth will not return through tax changes or spending announcements alone. Only by tackling structural barriers at their root can the UK restore economic optimism.

Professor Prowle is an expert in his field, having authored more than 100 publications, including 10 books. He has also delivered talks for the Prime Minster’s Policy Unit and the Economics Research Council. He is a professor of performance management withing the University’s School of Business, Computing and Social Sciences.